McCain may actually provide a charge against Obama

From Larry Kudlow at NRO we learn this:

Rasmussen has McCain four points ahead, 46-42. This is the first time in nearly three weeks that either candidate has enjoyed a four-point advantage in the poll. Disenchanted Democrats are the key here, with 23 percent saying they’d vote for McCain.

And a closer look at the battle ground state polls:
Quinnipiac FLORIDA — McCain 45, Obama 41. Clinton 48, McCain 41.
Quinnipiac OHIO — McCain 44, Obama 40. Clinton 48, McCain 41.
Quinnipiac PENNSYLVANIA — Obama 46, McCain 40. Clinton 50, McCain 37.

McCain beating Obama in Ohio and Florida? Uh oh.

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Oregon has gas....and it is bad

Yeesh... Is Oregon gasoline bad or what?

I filled up with gas last night after coming down from eastern Washington. I was sitting at a traffic light and my 2003 Chevy pick-up truck was hiccupping and choking. I was thinking that there was something wrong with my vehicle.

Then I happened to turn on Victoria Taft and she was talking about Oregon's gasoline mixture. I had heard about the new "ethanol" fuel but had no idea that it was this bad. Victoria was talking about how her vehicle was burning through the gas at a higher rate and killing her vehicle.

Then I decided to look at my fuel gauge and noticed that I had burned through a quarter tank of gas in less than 24 hours! OMG.

I hope that Washington never ever adapts the same insane fueled standards that Oregon has recently adopted. What a STUPID move.

oiy

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The Veepstakes and other Presidential political stuff

Ok so the Veepstakes is squarely underway and I can't say that I am entirely enthused. Well except for the fact that John McCain may actually be considering "crossing the aisle" and considering Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana.

Jindal is a solid conservative who just won election in a Democrat state. He is smart, attractive and articulate. However, probably a little too young at this point.

If only the rest of the veep field were like Jindal. Instead McCain is also considering Mitt Romney, Gov. Charlie Crist (Florida) and now we learn that former Gov. Tom Ridge was sought out to attend the veepstakes dinner.

Who do you like? (Oh and we know some of the Democrat trolls will inevitably show up and cast their vomit around like they have eaten too much cotton candy. We should just ignore them...yip yip)

I have said before that McCain needs to pick someone who will excite the conservative base. Especially since McCain has proven that he is marginally insane since he has begun to talk like one of those global warming cultists. (Seriously are some of those folks really that far removed from dawning robes, shaving their heads and wandering around airports seeking converts?)

I like governor Mark Sanford. He has stood up to the corporatists in his own party and has shown that he is a man who will stick with his principles.... Well OK I could also live with Crist.

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NWR in the news

The Willamette Week this week has referenced NWR's claim that Rex Burkholder is "mentally challenged."

Were we wrong then?

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The Final Results in CD 5

I thought we should set the record straight. Yes, Erickson won, I concede that and he is off to face Schrader in November. Yes, I am very disappointed that Mannix did not win. I still believe that Mannix is the best candidate for the job, regardless of party affiliation.

I have notice some of the comments on here from Erickson's supporters reveling in their victory. Just a quick note to all of you who are gloating: you should be gracious in victory and humble in defeat. Otherwise, you come across as being a bunch of jerks.

By the way, here are the final results in CD 5 Republican Primary:

--------------Erickson-------Mannix
Benton---------1183---------1434
Clackamas------10157--------9356
Lincoln----------2765--------1656
Marion--------13742--------14231
Multnomah-----884----------695
Polk-----------4067----------4446
Tillamook------1816----------1115
Total---------34,614---------32,933 (lost by 1,681 – 2.4%)

Erickson won 4 counties, Mannix won 3. This race wasn't the blowout that some of Erickson's supporters on NW Republican seem to think it was. And when you consider that Erickson outspent Kevin 5 to 1, well.........

But congratulations to Mr. Erickson, he "earned" (to the extent any candidate "earns" anything - this not a dig on Erickson - just an observation) the right to run against Schrader and the DCCC. I hope Erickson is prepared to write some REALLY big checks.

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Lindland wins... On to November

Headed to bed now after spending the evening at the Republican poll watching event at the Grand Central Bowl.

A couple of initial comments.

First if I can spend just a second so say YYEEAAHHHH... My guy Matt Lindland Won! Matt was there tonight with several folks from his campaign team. A nicer guy and a more understated individual you may never meet.

I also want to give kudos and a shout out to Rep. Bruce Hanna. He was an absolute stand up guy tonight and is ready to help push on to the fall and hopefully to help win not just this seat but some others.

I also want to congratulate Phyllis Thiemann for a good race. She, herself, never did get down and dirty and she deserves some praise for that. I was speaking with Lindland at one point and he had received word from her that she was committed to supporting Matt if he ended up being the winner. She reached out to him and that was a classy move.

I know at one point he was trying to contact her and tie up any loose ends.

Weidner
The next great race was Jim Weidner's commanding victory of 55% in a three way primary. That should send a pretty resounding message to the Democrats that this seat is NOT in play and that Weidner will work hard and keep this seat in the Republican column.

John Nelsen Dist. 49
More good news for Republicans is that the weakest of the two Democrats actually won the dist. 49 primary. The kid who ended up winning that race is a wet behind the ears youngster who is basically one of those "hey I'll put my name on the ballot" kind of candidates. John Nelsen should hold the old Karen Minnis seat pretty handily.

He has almost as much support from Democrats in that district as Republicans. Wow...

Oregon 5
In another wowzers race of the night Mike Erickson ended a strong primary race with a pretty handy victory over Kevin Mannix. Erickson overcame the last minute barrage by Mannix, came out on top and may have actually helped himself for the general.

He showed the district that he can take a punch and end up on top.

He has got a big race now against a Democrat who may not be as strong as Mannix. We will see if he can start throwing punches now and pull that seat back to the Republican column. That one will be interesting to watch.
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Now as for me I gotta get to bed so that I can get up early and play some golf tomorrow. I want to congratulate all the candidates, the victors and those who came up short, for getting in the races and playing them strong. Oregon has some exciting races in front of them and I hope that for the next 72 hours or so that Republicans all around the state can get behind the victors and maybe pull off some surprises.

night night...

yip yip

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The Coyote has landed

I just got into town (Portland) and planning on attending the main Republican election watch party on the Central East side.

Attending that one because, well, because I was invited. Any other election night parties on Portland's east side? Drop me an email if yer not afraid of k9's...

Contrary to popular belief I don't bite. Maybe that's why I never get invited to do those election night news shows... Well either that or I just prefer having a few beers with friends.

Good luck to all. For someone who is a truly a political junkie this has been a fun primary season to watch. From all sides.

Yip Yip

As I was driving in from eastern Washington I heard the news about Sen. Ted Kennedy and I want to be one of the folks to offer up my prayers for the Senator and his family. That is truly devastating news.

Some things transcend politics and the life and health of individuals is one of them.

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Or CD 5: Kurt Schrader trap door?

The Republicans of Oregon Congressional District 5 have beaten themselves up pretty badly. That is not news.

However I know a lot of Republicans have been beating themselves up over the idea that, whoever our candidate is, will be too badly damaged for the general election.

Remember I told you back here that Kurt Schrader had problems?

I thought for sure that Schrader's opponent would try to take advantage of some of the Schrader foibles. But he didn't.

Now I am hearing that the Schrader blockbuster is set to, well, bust any day now.

I do not know the full details of the story. Like with the Erickson issues, I know just enough that if I reported on it, it would be dangerous. However, I know that if the story goes where I think it could it could potentially be politically fatal.

The story being chased down by the MSM is replete with some personal issues and personal lives. That is why I am not allowing comments. I don't want someone accidentally dropping a comment that could be just close enough to be personally damaging.

Watch the MSM on this one.

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"A Late but Legitimate Charge". In case you missed the Oregonian this weekend.....

In case you missed this weekend's Oregonian editorial, and Dave Reinhard's column, here they are for you. First the Oregonian's editorial about Mike Erickson, calling the charges against him legitimate:

From the article:

"But Mannix was right last week to bring up some distasteful accusations against his primary opponent, Mike Erickson, at nearly the last minute."

The editorial calls Erickson's response "disrespectful" of the voters in the 5th District. "[T]he public is entitled to expect its leaders to be open and responsive. If Erickson wants voters to trust his good character and honesty, he must display those traits when challenged."

Erickson's response? Erickson "launched a television advertising blitz, criticizing Mannix's charges and timing, and restating a series of misleading, intellectually dishonest claims about Mannix's views of taxes and government spending."

The editorial concludes: "[T]he last-minute nature of the accusations might lead some who haven't voted to blame the whole imbroglio on Mannix. But they shouldn't. Not this time. Through his actions and silence last week, Erickson played GOP voters in his district for fools. We hope those voters prove him wrong."

And here is Reinhard's article:

Reinhard calls the allegations against Erickson both TRUE and RELEVANT, and advises that 5th District Republicans should see to it that Erickson does not get the nomination. I could not agree with Reinhard more.

This is an opporuntity for Erickson to do something I don't think he has ever done before. Erickson can and should do the honorable thing and drop out of the race. Not only for the voters of the 5th District, but also for the young woman whome he dated for two months, but never knew her name. Erickson can be a man, and show some respect and honor for his former girlfriend, and simply go away.

Do I think that will happen? No, because Erickson only cares about one person - Mike Erickson. Which is why I believe tomorrow night will be the last night Erickson will ever be a candidate for any elective office, and Wednesday Kevin Mannix can start making plans for the general election.

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Thoughts about Sam Adams Bridge to Nowhere.

A few weeks ago the big debate was Sam Adams placing an old bridge over I-405 near the Pearl District. Over the weekend I had a conversation with someone that caught my attention. One of those little off-hand talks that points out a big obvious thing that no one else seems to notice.

Sam Adams I-405 bicycle bridge was a blatant manipulation. He promised it and pulled it back the week after the ballots dropped.

Why is this blog-worthy?

Well, the battle over the stupid bridge was right before and during ballot drop. A week after the ballots go out (and the super voting liberal demographic submits their ballots in the first weekend) the project is killed. Also, it took place at the same time Adam's campaign was trying to smear fellow liberal mayoral candidate Sho Dozono for trying to renegotiate his rent in a city owned building (this as well happened the week before ballot drop).

The public was blatantly manipulated with dirty tricks that would make Richard Nixon blush. Yet no comment from the peanut gallery.

Background (for those who don't follow Portland politics).

Sam Adams is in a race with Sho Dozono for Mayor of Portland. Sam Adams has quite the Portland insider pedigree. First working for over a decade as Vera Katz policy enforcer and then moving on to take a seat on the Portland city council. Sam Adams is best known for being ruthless in his pursuit of projects and well known for keeping an enemies list. Over the past four years probably the most notable bureau under his management has been Portland Department of Transportation (or "PDOT").

Sam is fighting for more street car. Sam saved the Aerial Tram. Sam is also fighting for more bicycle infrastructure, speed bumps, and "pedestrian amenities" all while pot-holes expand and most of Portland's east-side has no sidewalks. This being kind of notable being all of Portland's Smart Growthers claiming to be for "walkable communities" yet huge swaths of Portland have no sidewalks (my guess is that a median family income of $100K is the entry level qualification for a "community" in Portland).

Its also worth mentioning that Sam Adams recently attempted to push forward a tax increase on small businesses for the supposed traffic they created (notice that the moment he had real competition for Mayor this proposal has seem to disappear without any comment either). This was necessary a few months ago because there was no money for routine road maintenance.

Fast forward this simplistic background description to a few weeks ago (see a simple Willamette Week description here).

Sam Adams was pushing hard, calling in favors, and pounding the table for how important a $5.5 million bicycle bridge was for NW Flanders street connecting the Pearl District to the other side of I-405. This bridge wouldn't effect other projects around the city as well (the money was some how free because the Pearl District's urban renewal pot-of-gold could cover it). Adams claimed this was important, pointed to it as his defining characteristic of his support for bicyclists (and of course super-voting million dollar condo dwellers).

Then as sudden as can ever happen. The project was off the table. There was no money.

How do you accidentally think that you have $5.5 million dollars? Especially when your Sam Adams!!! Isn't that his whole political schtick? "Look at me - I'm Sam Adams - I can spend money that would be fraud anywhere else for Aerial Trams." His whole campaign is his experience making things happen with budgets.

Its obvious this whole thing was a scam from the start. How the heck is this possible, and why hasn't anyone even commented on this before? The fact that he tricked super voters hoping to seal up the election.

What I can't believe is that no one has questioned this. He totally screwed the bicycle activists. The Pearl district dwellers, and others he had promised. He had manipulated them completely.

How this isn't actually covered as it is I can't figure out. I guess the Oregonian and Willamette Week's editorial staff just like being lied to as long as the politician has the correct pedigree and promises with the correct pretty words (hmmmm, could that also explain Obama?).

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This is how unions GOTV in Oregon

This is why it is important to keep tax increases off of the minor election ballots. Because these folks are more organized than the average taxpayer. And of course the majority of union members in Oregon are PUBLIC EMPLOYEE union members whose existence is based on tax increases.

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Who will win Oregon?

The punditology frenzy is on all over the internet. I happen to think that NWR has some of the most savvy political readers on the web (even if you DON'T agree with me all the time...hey there is always room for improvement.).

Here are some questions (I will place my prediction in red each category):

Who wins Oregon's 5th Congressional district
Mannix v Erickson - Mannix 52% to 48%
Schrader v Marks - Schrader 56% to 44%

Oregon House Dist. 2
Freeman v Fox - Fox 51% to 49% (a complete guess because Freeman seems to be running more as the institutional politician than Fox and this is just not the cycle for politicians.)

Oregon House Dist. 24
Weidner v Bunn v Gladd - Weidner 38%, Gladd 33%, Bunn 29% (I know this may be a big surprise for a lot of folks. But again this is not the year to be running as the institutional politician.)

Oregon House Dist. 52
Lindland v Thiemann - Lindland 60% to 40%

Oregon House Dist. 17
Sprenger v Lucca v Cuff v Wooten - Sprenger 33%, Lucca 29%, Cuff 20%, Wooten 18% (There is the possibility for a surprise Lucca win here based on how I heard he finished the week. The wild card is whether Wooten is able to siphon off some of the "institutional" vote from Sprenger.)

Portland Mayor
Sho v Adams (do Portland city races even really matter anymore?)
Adams will win but it will go to a run-off

Democrat Senate
Merkley v Novick - Novick 53% to 47% (again the anti-politician)

Bonus...Democrat Presidential margin
Obama v Clinton - Obama 60% to 40%

There you have it. Now I just wonder why anyone goes through the work of actually voting when I can simply pick the races for everyone... heh....

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Child Rapist walks free

On Friday, admitted child rapist Vern Heizer walked free from jail. He copped a plea deal.

The judge ordered him to leave the county. So watch this video of a child rapist walking out of the courthouse and remember him. Because he is looking for another county to live in.

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