Things Are Not Going Well For Ron Saxton
Or so it would seem.
Just about the time Ron Saxton should have been gaining traction from a half million of his $1.5 million in campaign dollars, the Clapper ads hit. Many folks on here thought that the Clapper ads might actually help Ron Saxton.
They aren't and Saxton is calling for help from Uncle Dave (Reinhard). That won't work either.
Now Dave Reinhard is one of the nicest guys on the face of the earth. Which is more important than any political position. After all the Bible says that "what is required in a man is kindness." But Dave goes south politically sometimes. This is one of those times. Note to Dave; Ron Saxton went negative first a long time ago. Saxton has been attacking his opponents in this race going back to last November. Dave, you may want to talk to him about that before you accuse other candidates of going negative. The difference is that Ron has been lying as he does it and there is truth in the Clapper ads.
The tea leaves are not that hard to read, for example:
1) Saxton is not releasing any poll numbers. Well except for the all important Dorchester straw poll and the Portland Business Journal online poll. If a candidate has a poll that says they are winning, they release it.
2) Saxton is calling in the chits with The Oregonian. It has been a full on assault on Kevin Mannix by the "O." With two "hard" news stories, an editorial against Mannix, a nauseating endorsement and TWO hits by Uncle Dave? If you have ever wanted to see what political mouth to mouth resuscitation looks like, well, this is it.
3) The Grand Ronde Tribe is beginning to act hysterical in their support. Hysterical in that you can almost hear them yelling "DON'T YOU PEOPLE KNOW THAT WE REALLY REALLY MEAN IT?! Really."
This primary is still wide open and Saxton just can't figure out why. After all he has told all his donors that he was a shoe in. He has told everybody that he is conservative this time "really I am." He has almost $2 million dollars. He has had The Oregonian carry far too much water than is usually warranted.
Yet he still has no traction to show for all of this.
Has happened before
I have seen this happen before. Back in 1999 Portland tried to pass a huge Light Rail tax package (NOTE: Ron Saxton was on the pro light rail side). They had $2 million dollars. They had The Oregonian applying mouth to mouth resuscitation. They had a double digit lead in the polls. In fact when I decided to take on the campaign to kill the measure most of the "certified smart" people said that there was no way to win a Portland Light Rail battle, because the fix was in. Heck even Clapper did not want any part of that campaign early on.
Yet we started grinding away at a campaign. The closer we got to election day the more and more shrill the other side started becoming. They started responding to our cute radio ads and our "10 light rail myths" message. A $2 million dollar campaign responding to a silly little $150,000 band of grassroots workers?!
Then in the debates they started melting down. Getting personal. Getting snitty. The Oregonian newspaper started running editorials over and over basically saying "DON'T YOU PEOPLE KNOW THAT WE REALLY REALLY MEAN IT? Really!"
However doubt was placed in the mind of the voters. Doubt that all those millions of dollars in advertising were selling a deceptive message. Once there is doubt in the mind of the consumer those dollars become less effective. In order to overcome that doubt you must walk a fine line of screaming at the voter that you "really really are conservative," and just plain screaming "SAVE ME!" The Saxton campaign is in jeapardy of hitting the second of the two refrains and the Dave Reinhard column did not help.
Watch now
Now tonight is the News Channel 8 debate. Watch for a couple of things.
1)Watch for Ron Saxton to go on a major attack. It will be a fine line to pull it off because he is on the verge of sounding shrill.
2)Watch for the potential of melt-down. I am not predicting that Saxton WILL melt down, but that there is all the potential for it. He is going to be the tightest wound of all the candidates and feeling the pressure of losing another $2 million dollar primary campaign.
3) Also watch for Saxton's flanking troops (Oregonian, KATU and MSM) to become more condescending in their support for Ron Saxton.
So there, I have given the Saxton team a heads up. Let's see how they and the MSM media respond. I just don't think he can get traction without a major play and that play will probably have to come tonight.
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29 comments:
Coyote,
Because they keep us in the dark down here, do you know of a site that will host an audio feed of the entire debate like the one the City Club did week before last?
WOW! you guys will lie about anything to get Jason elected.
thank God only 10 people read this little blog.
Jason "Can't handle a LARS interview" Atknison doesn't have a chance in the world. THANKS for helping TED get back in office.
Since when do canidates have to answer to Lars? Its funny how Atkinson numbers jumped when Lars dumped him, and Saxton sure hasnt gained anything since good ole Lars endorsed him.
If republicans select Saxton expect many true conservatives not to vote in the general including myself and many family members.
I sent these comments to TED's office.
THEY like it a lot!
TED hopes you do NOT support SAXTON.
#1 & ONLY Statewide Radio show doesn't matter?
So only ignorant CHILDREN are supporting Jason?
Ted=Saxton thats why the MSM and the Oregonian love him. Only difference one has an R the other a D next to their name.
#1 statewide radio show obviously doesnt matter... hasnt helped Saxton.
You can call us ignorant for supporting the true conservative in the race... if you want.
Anyone seen polling numbers published anywhere?
it's strange, but there haven't been any "horse race" polls anywhere in more than a month. the only one is the zogby poll recently that showed atkinson running strongest against kulongoski and actually winning if westlund was in the race.
that said, there's a poll on may 16 and we'll know then.
You made the point why Republicans should endorse Atkinson. Thank You, if you wanna beat Teddy support Atkinson not Saxton.
In line with Coyote's thoughts, look for the Fishwrapper to editorialize several more times in favor of Saxton.
It will be the most obvious sign of (panic) trouble in paradise.
RinoWatch just loves it when the wrapper supports such a fervent advocate of fiscal conservatism --- Gag me.....
I know for a fact that Bob Moore has been in the field for Saxton. We haven't seen any bragging from Saxton's camp. So what does that tell us?
There have been some private polls done. One was by a conservative org from DC with an eye toward backing Atkinson. After getting a look at the numbers they decided to stay out of the race. Make of that what you will.
There was also a basic "Beauty Contest" done by the unions. Only about five questions by a Democrat pollster. It showed basically the same numbers are Mannix's late February poll. Undcideds remain high with Saxton in mid-teens and Atkinson in single digits. I haven't actually seen this one, only been told what it shows.
None of this is new stuff. I have reported it all before on this site.
Rumor has it that Mannix is very sick but will pariticpate in tonight's (4-24) TV debate. It will be intersting to see how far this throws Mannix off his game. He's usually a pretty good debater.
I am curious about the power of endorsements and the liberal slant of the fishwrap:
Has the fishwrap ever endorsed a GOP primary candidate in a statewide election who A) went on to win the primary and B) went on to win the general?
I mean besides Gordon Smith, who conservatives unanimously despise?
Just something to keep in mind when the fishwrap "endorses" Ron Saxton...
So your making excuses for Mannix already. If hes sick dont debate. If he debates no excuses.
Noyt making excuses for Mannix Bobby. As a non-affiliated voter I have no dog in this fight.
"Gordon Smith, who conservatives unanimously despise?"
Give me a break. Gordon Smith is an honorable conservative who the vast majority of Republican conservatives support. Sounds like Darryl Howard, our honorable ex-executive director of the ORP who badmouthed the only sitting statewide elected Republican in Oregon, posting here...
Get a life, just watch the debate going on now and make an informed choice.
Who is Mark Clapper and why doesn't he get a real job?
Jason wins the debate but not by the margin he needed, there were points in the debate he was on the verge of knocking it out of the park but just didn't get there. The lighting on Saxton made his hair look green and for someone who is not a career politician he sure talked a lot without giving much detail, his line about Kulongoski spending four years proving Kitzaber right was the best of the night. Kevin was probably better than I've ever seen him but way to much moose and makeup and didn't convince me the fourth try will be the charm. This undecided voter is leaning Atkinson but I will need to be convinced it is not just a wasted vote.
"Mark" Clapper is Greg Clapper. The last real job he had, that I know of,fvefovbt was as program director of KPAM radio. I can't remember exactly why he got canned from that one...but I'll try to find out. It wasn't good, I do remember that.
"Mannix with too much moose..." the first thing that came to mind was Kevin standing next to a squirrel saying "Hey Rocky, watch me pull an election out of my hat."
I missed the debate, but I doubt I missed much.
Saxton has been spewing his "I'm not a career politician" for 4 years now.
He first ran for office in 1978. And lost. That's why he isn't a career politician. You have to win first.
The problem with political "debates" is that they aren't debates. Far from it. They are just an hour of sound bites. No one gives any substance. They are geared to giving emotional responces to issues that fire up their supports and maybe turn the heads of the undecidedes. They answer the questions that they think will propel them forward and dance around the ones they want to avoid.
They stand on stage and blow more hot air than the Hindenberg when it landed at Lake Hurst Naval Station in 1937
The only different really is that at least the Hindenberg disaster became an album cover for one of the best albums ever recorded.
Saxton has internal data that isn't as good as he'd like itto be. He's been spending alot of money lately in areas I wouldn't expect. It's going to be tight. Ask Felix.
Anon842,
Your recap I think was pretty good. If Jason won it was because he stepped up and the "talking heads" were surprised that he was on the same level. When you surpase the preconceived expectations it is a win.
Kevin really did do pretty well. I do know that he was very very ill all day. I was talking with folks over in that camp and they were keeping him in bed. I have to give him knuckles for his performance considering the circumstances. At least Mannix dropped the "I was born a foreign service brat then moved to Virginia" schtick. That line has been making my hair hurt. So Mannix was Mannix, not great, not bad.
Ron? Well let me start with some positives. He was well studied. He came off as one that really really wants the job. I kinda remember the line about Kulongouski proving Kitzhaber right but only because someone reminded me of it. However in that sense Ron showed a little humanness for once. Probably the first time the entire campaign he did not seem like a gubernatorial "go-bot." His policy positions were pretty much spot-on for a Republican primary. Although the questioners never really pinned him down on his many flip flops. (Yet curiously enough they dug at Mannix a couple of different times.) So Ron got off the hook AGAIN.
Now Ron's negatives. First there are the asthetic issues. Some he can't help, lighting was one. Something just did not work out there and there was something about his teeth. I know I know that is pickey and it is not fair to Ron but my wife while walkin in and out of the room (who at first thought it was Mannix) commented on it.
Anothe asthetic issue was his constant ROCKING back and forth! I mean good Lord it was making me dizzy. Funny thing is, is that I was watching it from my living room sofa and my 11 year old son was sitting in the dining room behind me. I did not realize he was watching the debate very closely at all until he got up and walked into the living room. He said "it looks like he is going like this..." then proceeded to rock himself back and forth in front of me. Well... Bingo... I am not the only one that saw it. So if an eleven year old boy eating his dinner can notice it I have to wonder how many others noticed it as well. I would have thought he would have been coached better than that. I learned from my first ever TV interview (after making the mistake) that you DON'T MOVE. You may feel like a statue but the camera picks up every little stinking twitch.
Finally there were some of the things that Saxton actually SAID. Those others were asthetic and not a reason to pick and chose a candidate (although unfortunately or fortunately, they will play a part.).
The first was the big lie. That came early on in the debate when Saxton got all over Mannix for the independent expenditure campaign. Saxton tried to act all indignant yet ignored the massive amounts of gambling money that have been backing "Ron Saxton" and attacking Kevin Mannix. The big lie was when Ron said he has been running a "positive" campaign. BULL. Ron has been taking shots at all three candidates for months. Ron went negative a LONGGG time ago and the press is giving him a pass for it.
Ron Saxton also lied about changing his positions since last time. He told the Oregonian newspaper last time that he could not think of a pro-life bill that he could sign. He told them that he would not oppose partial birth abortion. Yet now he says he will and does not call that a change?
He did not come off as very warm and he was really kinda cold on that question. We will see if he and the Grand Ronde Tribe can spend enough money to warm him up to the voters.
AnonPol,
I think you are correct. While I have not talked to anyone inside the campaign it has all the markings of a frustrated group.
I understand that Rob Kremer went all hysterical on his show as well. So just ad that to the Uncle Dave piece and you really do see some concern.
I would not be surprised to see Lars getting more and more over the top in the future.
Desperation can lead you to a fine line between success and melt-down.
I think Mr Atkinson won this debate. I think people like that he is running a positive message, and running on grassroots help not money. Although he didnt do great neither did Mannix or Saxton. This helps Atkinson because not many people know who he is so just getting on TV helped him and his message was the most positive.
Mannix did what Mannix had to do he survived.
Saxton was completly boring. The guy came acorss as a CAREER POLITICIAN. He made a whole lot of big blanket statements... promising the world. At the end this probably hurt his chances to gain any of the indepdents who watched.
At the end I think Atkinson seems real to people, Mannix was Mannix he did what he had to do. Saxton showed desperate.
After the debate I think I will now no doubt support Atkinson.
Congratulations JD, you have just decided to support the number three candidate. Atkinson will finish with no more than 15% of the vote.
I hope Atkinson enjoyed being on TV because it the only time he is going to be on YV (excepting news) in this campaign. He hasn't, and isn't, raising the bucks to fund a TV campaign.
Will the bloggers stick with Atkinson to the bitter end or will they say, "Good campaign Jason, but not quite good enough" and switch to another candidate? I notice Coyote has been warming to Mannix just a bit lately although he doesn't seem to be able to resist a dig here and there.
Coyote,
I know most of the Saxton folks. I think the concern comes from the numbers on the undecided voters. We're looking at a complete mystery right down to GOTV.
AnonPol,
Hmm... I am agreeing with you. I hope that does not make you angry... hehe...
Contrary to what Anon842 believes Atkinson is going to be above 15%. Will he win it? I sure hope so and when I make a commitment to someone I stand by them. Politics is too full of fickle friends.
There are still many many undecided voters out there and the two major players cannot get traction. Yet Jason needs to reach them. He is doing it through grassroots... the problem with grassroots is that you need time. Does he have time? THAT is the $2 million dollar question.
I think it will be close. A lot closer than folks want it to be.
I heard from someone out in eastern Oregon that Jason was out there speaking at a church last Sunday. Well... They are voting for him... hmmm... I did a little research and found out that he was at like three churches in that trip. He was also at at least two evening meetings (not church meetings) that pulled in over 100 people.
That was at least a 400 person weekend. Plus the mailings and phone banking that have been on-going and you find some support growing under the radar.
The political talking heads HATE that kind of movement because they have a hard time looking smarter than everyone when talking about the race. Although Hibbits touched on it a few weeks back when he said not to count Atkinson out. Hibbits has too big a reputation to say something like that if he is not reading something into the crosstabs of polling.
I'm glad we're in agreement, I guess. From what I understand, the concern is the undecided voters are primarily 3s and 4s. With at least 18% of the electorate undecided, it helps Atkinson. I believe I saw a internal poll not too long ago that didn't express much enthusiasm among Republicans for a Saxton-Mannix do over. That's got to be good for Jason. As far as I see it, Atkinson will get at least 25%.
I'm meeting with Atkinson this week. I'm actually pretty excited, I've only met him a couple of times but without the chance for an extended chat.
When you talk to Jason, ask him what his greatest accomplishment in the legislature has been.
Ask him why he steals the lines of his opponents during debates whenever he gets asked a question first.
Ask him why he brags in his book about sneaking food from the Senate Lounge to feed the janitors. (In the book, he says he doesn't even belong to the Senate Lounge.)
Ask him what he's going to do for Oregon.
You may change your mind about who you will vote for.
Alex (aka Skeptic),
Oh knock off this stealing food bit would you?
How childish. Why don't you talk about how Ron Saxton took the city of Portland taxpayers for $250,000 dollars to represent them against PGE. Only to drop Portland and switch to representing PGE for more money.
Oh and the Portland playbook.
Now THAT'S ethical.
Oh and you may want to check your facts SS when you talk about a candidate "stealing" lines. It has become a running inside joke with all three campaigns that Ron Saxton has been stealing Jason's stuff for months.
In fact Felix Schein said something like: Give us eight weeks and we will steal your entire message...
yip yip
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