Clackamas Light Rail Disected
One of our contributors (DARE) seemed to have spurred quite the discussion about how non-effective Light Rail really is, over on this post. There is one LR religionist who has been making quite a spirited attempt to promote the 18th century technology, known as light rail, but is falling quite short on executable facts.
No worries, after all that is what Tri-Met has been getting away with doing for years and years. And once again The Oregonian has fallen for the make-believe tripe by publishing this PR piece.
No kidding! Well that has spurred some more comments on another thread (someplace, can't find it right now) and one of our readers has forwarded me a great walk through of The Oregonian article. I am just wondering when The Oregonian is going to run some major news stories suggesting that Santa Clause really does exist?
The comments debunking that Oregonian story are really quite good and I can't improve upon them. However I thought that I would put some up here for folks to read and digest. Oh and maybe, just maybe some LR religionists may be spurred to re-enter reality. Original article in bold black. Reality comments in red.
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Next stop: Prosperity, doors to my left
Planners say the MAX line on its way to Clackamas County in 2007 will lay down track for more than just a light-rail train. It also will carry an economic engine for jobs and business stretching into the next decade.
It didn't help Rockwood. Fred Meyer even gave up with all of the crime, some of it facilitated by MAX. What would help is some of that $1/2 Billion that the city is going to pour into the North Macadam Urban Renewal district.
By 2025, about 46,500 people are expected to board light rail every day between Clackamas Town Center and downtown Portland. About a third of those riders will travel within the section of the light-rail track that runs along I-205.
Do the math: 46,500 people, is Trimet speak for 46,500 boardings which is 23,250 people making round trips (you do have to get back home). 1/3 of those will travel "within the section of the light-rail track that runs along I-205." 1/3 of 23,250 is 7,750 people that Trimet projects by 2025, according to this report. So our headline number of 46,500 is really 7,750. This is called "transit math".
In all, Portland-area light-rail lines have resulted in $6 billion of development within walking distance -- less than half a mile -- of MAX stations, said Mary Fetsch, a TriMet spokeswoman.
MAX takes credit for ALL development in the area. They ignore that much of this development would have occurred anyway and that much of it is getting tax abatements, urban renewal money and other "incentives". MAX had little development before they started giving tax incentives:
For instance, see: HOUSING NEAR LIGHT RAIL GETS INCENTIVE (Oregonian, October 24, 1996)The Portland City Council on Thursday approved a tax incentive plan that will give tax breaks to transit-oriented housing projects near MAX light-rail stations and two other Portland eastside locations.....Developers have been hesitant to build the type of housing Metro says the region needs to attract more transit riders. The tax break also aims to help Tri-Met make the most of the public's investment in the $214 million Banfield MAX line, which opened a decade ago. .....``We have an investment that hasn't been well capitalized on,'' he [Hales] said.
That Clackamas County, soon after final approval of the new light rail line funding, approved a $25 million Urban Renewal District spending plan to expand the Town Center is a good example....
...a nearby Fred Meyer spent millions of dollars improving its retail building, and dozens of smaller shops appeared, Fetsch said.
Fred Meyer upgraded all of their stores - that was just the last Fred Meyer to be upgraded - it would have happened without MAX.
Although MAX is expected to decrease traffic overall, it might increase traffic around the light-rail stations. That has some workers concerned.
Be very concerned. Cars coming to MAX is just the tip of the iceberg. The real problem is the housing that will be added. Metro's target is 5000 homes at each station. That will mean, just guessing, 5000 more cars at each station. For reference, one lane of freeway can transport about 1800 cars per hour, so each station's commuters will occupy a full lane of I205 for over two hours each AM & each PM. Conversely, if the planner's wildest dreams came true and everyone took MAX, each station's worth of people would take up 15 MAX (5000/322) trains every AM and every PM for every station. MAX can only run 20 trains per hour through it most busy point. Conclusion: intolerable congestion.
As a result of the project, cars will drive 125,000 fewer miles a week along the I-205 corridor, according to a study evaluating the environmental affects of the project.
Lets do the math again. 125,000 / 7 =17,857 miles per day. For 6.5 mile route, that is 2747 one way trips. That is equal to the capacity of one and one-half HOURS of ONE lane of freeway. Trimet just said that MAX will remove the equivalent of one and one-half hour's worth of traffic from one lane. But Trimet forget to mention that about 2/3 of those people would have been on the bus if MAX wasn't built, so the reality is that MAX is projected to remove 915 cars from the road - less than one-half of one lane for one hour. And at a cost of 1/2 billion. Had that money been spent on adding a lane pair, congestion would really be reduced. Adding a lane pair to 6.5 miles of freeway should cost no more that $65 million - a savings of 88% compared to MAX.
Jobs expected in retail, services:
economists with the Oregon Employment Department say that job growth within Clackamas County should continue and be up by 16.3 percent within a decade.
Do the math - that is only 1,5% per year. Oregon average is now 3.6% and was 2.9 % last year. ( Link )
The most common new jobs will be for retail salespeople making about $26,600 a year, the Oregon Employment Department says.
Portland area average job paid: $40,250 in 2005 per Bureau of Labor Statistics at LINK.
Unemployment in Clackamas County peaked in 2003 at 7.5 percent. It has been falling since, according to state figures. Now it's at 5 percent, slightly below the state average.
The national average is: 4.5% in Nov 2006 per http://www.bls.gov/
Housing, commercial sectors should rise
High-end Renaissance Homes, for example, sold 300 homes this year, and company president RandySebastian said he expects to hit 350 in 2007.
And how many of us can afford "High-end" homes? That is all that will be built because Metro won't let us build on enough land to make building housing, for average people, financially viable. For one view, see THIS.
Thanks
JK
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I doubt the added housing will create all that much traffic. A new apartment building went up two years ago across from a MAX station and it appears to be full of affordable housing fans who can't afford to drive. Why would anyone expect more cars when those with the greatest incentive to locate there are those without cars?
Adding a lane pair to 6.5 miles of freeway should cost no more that $65 million - a savings of 88% compared to MAX.
$10 million for adding a lane to one mile of freeway in the metro area? Not even close to today's real world prices. Have you seen the price tag for the proposed expansion of 217?
All I know is that the cost for a new Sellwood bridge is a little more than the Aerial Tram that was built laterally to the same URA.
No money for the Sellwood Bridge but all the money in the world for an Aerial Tram.
I also know that the cost of setting up Lightrail across the Columbia river at Jantzen Beach along side existing freeway is more than building a whole new bridge along side Amtrack rail for a freight cooridor connecting Portland's port with Vancouver's port bolstering jobs on both sides and making better use of rail shipping to the region.
Lightrail is progress and maintaining our existing infrastructure that gets more expensive every year you defer it is a step back according to Portland's transport-inteligencia.
To paraphrase Rex Brukholder - they believe that any money spent on wheels powered by engines is a waste. Every penny sucked out of transporation is a better investment than the capitalist system.
The way Trimet inflates ridership is to cut and redirect bus routes to light rail. I used to live without a car from the time I arrived in Portland in 1992 to I finally got my first drivers license in 2001. In 1997, Trimet essentially cut downtown busses 89 and 59 and turn them into light rail feeder busses. I was force to go light-rail if I wanted to or not. Another problem is most high –tech jobs are nowhere near downtown and are not served by light rail. This includes most of Intel, and Tualatin area (GE and others high tech companies). The only exemption is Tektronix. Of course, light-rail fits the stupid smart growth mantra of putting high density and job closer. Yet, do they really think I am going to give up my high skilled technician job to become a low paying checker or waiter in retail?
"The most common new jobs will be for retail salespeople making about $26,600 a year, the Oregon Employment Department says."
:lol:
Some retail sales people at full time might make 26,000. They would be dammed lucky if they did.
Most are part time and work for the bottom dollar the retailer thinks they can hire them for.
Anonymous said... $10 million for adding a lane to one mile of freeway in the metro area? Not even close to today's real world prices. Have you seen the price tag for the proposed expansion of 217?
JK: NOT RELEVANT. ODOT owns the land and the bridges are wide enough. All they have to do is smooth a bit and lay asphalt.
Thanks
JK
First, you assume that they mean boardings when they say "46,500 people" and that everyone will go "home" on MAX. Some people may use another mode (e.g. get a ride or use the parallel bike path) or, like I just did, take another routing. Overall, trips, whether by car, bus or train, are usually counted individually (think "the trip home").
Second, the Green Line will mean more trains along the Banfield and better service to downtown, attracting riders who don't use any of the I-205 portion.
Third, those 125,000 may not be spread evenly throughout the week. And I do not understand how you get the 2747. However it came, the full capacity of light rail tracks or freeway lanes is not usually used.
Fourth, do you have proof that 2/3 of MAX riders would be willing to take a bus? My parents are definitely more willing to consider a train and ones that do ride the crowded parallel Line 72 will get relief.
Lastly, the 1/2 billion includes some expensive work in downtown as well as vehicles for use outside the I-205 portion. Laying tracks along transit-ready I-205 should be pretty cheap. And can you find evidence that widening I-205 would really cost $65 million? Not that it would necessarily reduce congestion, since it may encourage more motorists to come fill up the extra lanes, resulting in more pollution, crashes, etc.
Jason McHuff First, you assume that they mean boardings when they say "46,500 people"
JK: That is usual Trimet practice. It makes the numbers look more impressive and allows them to claim increased “ridership” when the open a new toy train line due to forcing people to transfer from bus to train when they shut down the bus line. BTW, I am still waiting to hear what bus lines they are going to re-route or shut down to force people onto the I205 toy train.
Jason McHuff and that everyone will go "home" on MAX.
JK: OF course some will take their final transit ride to a car dealership to buy a car and launch a new life free of transit dependancy.
Jason McHuff Some people may use another mode (e.g. get a ride or use the parallel bike path) or, like I just did, take another routing. Overall, trips, whether by car, bus or train, are usually counted individually (think "the trip home").
JK: We are talking average system, not individuals. Such one-way use probably averages out by other people doing the opposite. Do you have any data to suggest a lot of one-way trips on tranist?
Jason McHuff Second, the Green Line will mean more trains along the Banfield and better service to downtown, attracting riders who don't use any of the I-205 portion.
JK: My impression is the the Steel bridge is currently at capacity for toy trans. If that is true they will have to cut frequency somewhere to accommodate the I205 boondoggle trains.
Jason McHuff Third, those 125,000 may not be spread evenly throughout the week. And I do not understand how you get the 2747. However it came, the full capacity of light rail tracks or freeway lanes is not usually used.
JK: Let me break it down into smaller steps:
125,000 miles / 7days per week = 17,857 miles per day.
It is a 6.5 mile route, so divide that 17,857 miles per day to get 6.5 mile trips: that is 2747 one way trips, each 6.5 mile long.
Jason McHuff Fourth, do you have proof that 2/3 of MAX riders would be willing to take a bus?
JK: Nationally there are various takes on this number. Trimet did a survey shortly after Max opened, found that number and, if I recall correctly, buried it. The I-5 task force compared two bus ridership projections to toy train ridership and used a number of 69-82%, depending on option details. (I could have used 82%, but am trying to be reasonably fair here)
Jason McHuff My parents are definitely more willing to consider a train and ones that do ride the crowded parallel Line 72 will get relief.
JK: Right, and some will be less willing because bus stops are closer together than rail stops. Additional people leave transit when the introduction of toy trains force then to transfer from the, re-routed bus, to the train. (transfers waste time, expose you to the weather and crime)
Jason McHuff Lastly, the 1/2 billion includes some expensive work in downtown as well as vehicles for use outside the I-205 portion. Laying tracks along transit-ready I-205 should be pretty cheap.
JK: But the downtown work is necessary to shove that many trains through downtown, so it is a required part of building the I205 line and is justly counted as such.
Jason McHuff And can you find evidence that widening I-205 would really cost $65 million?
JK: National average is $5-10 million per lane-mile. 6.5 miles = 13 line miles x $5 million per lane- mile. Using the lower figure should be justified by the fact that 1) the land is owned by ODOT; 2) is relatively flat; 3) the bridges are wide enough.
Jason McHuff Not that it would necessarily reduce congestion, since it may encourage more motorists to come fill up the extra lanes, resulting in more pollution, crashes, etc.
JK: GOD!!! do people still believe that old Sierra club crap? The reality is the when capacity is added, traffic is attracted off of lesser streets, resulting in less traffic in the neighborhoods and less pollution. In the long run (years - decades) as the population grows, there will be more driving due to more people and road capacity needs to increase proportionally just like water, electricity phones etc. If we build more road capacity, do you really expect people to drive to work twice each AM?
Can you point to any mass transit system outside of NYC, Chicago and LA that carry enough people to reduce congestion (except to the city core)?
Since you talked about ridership above, let me add this:
Transit ridership counts every one who gets on board at each stop along the way and, of course, many take short trips and therefore get off relatively soon. They do not subtract those getting off.
Freeway usage is reported at points along the way, so they do subtract those getting off.
If you count freeways the same way that you count transit, you get a far higher number than usually used for freeways, making toy trains look even more toy like.
(toy: something that costs a lot, but does little for the real world. Generally is is amusing to its owner)
Thanks
JK
Let's do an experiment and encourage all Tri-Met employees to go on strike for an entire WEEK! See what kind of impact it really has, if any!
Anonymous Let's do an experiment and encourage all Tri-Met employees to go on strike for an entire WEEK! See what kind of impact it really has, if any!
JK: I was told that traffic congestion actually went down in Minneapolis, during their transit strike. I was told that there is a report analyzing this somewhere.
Apparently the Star-Tribune ran a column on the topic on 11 March 2004 by David Strom:
Transit just isn't that important to the smooth functioning of the Twin Cities transportation system," said league President David Strom. "That's the obvious conclusion to be drawn from the lack of chaos engendered by the bus-system strike…
… "Even in areas highly transit dependent — such as the central business districts of St. Paul and Minneapolis — there just doesn't seem to be much difference in traffic when buses are running and when buses are not," he said. "The bus strike shows decisively that proponents of transit are simply not telling the truth when they say that transit ridership reduces congestion. It simply doesn't."
Thanks
JK
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