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| July 14: citizens of Paris storm the Bastille and free seven prisoners (1789), in Germany, all political parties are outlawed except the Nazi Party (1933), Russia withdraws from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (2007); b: Buenaventura Durruti (1896); d: Billy the Kid (1881), Adlai Stevenson (1965) |  |
... used by Barack Obama when he trained ACORN community organizers: 'Rules for Radicals' by the late socialist Saul Alinsky
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14 comments:
Wow, all I can say is, wow. Should be entertaining at the very least.
I'm sure he won't be the front-runner, though. It sounds like Blumenauer will run if DeFazio (and Kitz) doesn't.
My not-seriously-thought-through analysis:
Kitzhaber
I have a feeling that Kitz isn't going to run. I just have this impression that Kitz is a big jerk by nature and the whole being nice for a living thing is hard for him. I might be wrong but I get the impression that to John Kitzhaber actually campaigning is more work than he wants to put up with. He also is probably making great money sitting on boards and not working very hard.
DeFazio
Not going to do it because he's gt a job. I also get the impression that DeFazio isn't the hardest campaigner. He complains about raising cash which to me means he doesn't want to work at beating Smith. He's almost telling his party, 'I'll do it as long as I don't have to work harder than running for congress.'
Mr. Bow Tie
He strikes me as someone easy to make a cartoon characterization of that will stick. Blumenahauer has such a record that I think he is as long a shot as Novick. Don't get me wrong, Blumenahauer is a good hard working politician if he needs to be. I just don't see him giving up his safe seat where he's climbing into the leadership to risk going after Smith. Smith's negatives aren't high enough and his posatives are still pretty reasonable. Not a safe enough bet.
Another thing as well. If Blumenahauer steps out of that seat its going to be like watching a chicken fight in the Democratic primary inside of Portland. The money on the D's side might get scarce in Oregon as the party spends gobbs in the primary. Throw in a few good anti-union initiatives in the primary and it might such down alot of resources outside of the statewide race. Being off-season the national money will be there for Oregon but will it carry the whole race. Local money builds more of a momentum in my mind.
We all better be careful, don't wan to end up like Imas. Saying anything negative about no truth Novick will be very political incorrect, and he no doubt will be offended.
However you guys forget that Novick still has his thrice weekly column in The Oregonian.
Well, of course he has Steve "nastiest man in Oregon" Duin submit it for him, but it is his nonetheless.
Do not discount Novick too sharply. He is a very bright guy. Sure, he is almost to the left of Karl Marx philosophically, but whom has that hurt lately in a statewide race in Oregon. And if Novick wins the primary by default, he will have that all important "Dem" by his name on the ballot, which guarantees him a huge base.
Kitzhaber doesn't have the stomach for a race against a guy who can raise millions to fight a tough race. He has never faced an articulate, well heeled opponent in a knock down drag out fight.
Blumenauer and DeFazio would be taking a huge risk to run against Smith, as neither of them could find a job if they lost those high paying congressional seats they hold. Both will probably stay put.
I look for a second tier Democrat to come out of the woodwork after the legislative session ends and snatch the Democrat nomination from Novick, someone recruited by the national party to insure a competitive race against the most vulnerable incumbent in the United States Senate. I look for Randal Edwards, Kate Brown, Peter Courtney, or perhaps Kurt Schrader to take the plunge. After all, the prize is too tempting for all of the ambitious D's to take a pass.
The problem is, the longer the D's wait to put someone else forward, the more credible the Novick campaign will become, as he will be mentioned by default in every Gordon Smith story that runs.
This may be the most dynamic, high stakes race in years. Eventually it will be a nasty, no holds barred, all out war that could determine control of the U.S. Senate. No way Smith is getting an easy pass this time.
Bill Sizemore
This is about as significant as Dennis Kucinich declaring he is running for President. His appearance in the D primary will be nothing other than comic relief.
The real dark horse, if DeFazio stays out of it, will be none other than Ted Kulongoski...
I don't think Novick has a chance for two reasons. One, name recognition and the money required to build it. Two, once establishing name recogniztion Novick won't be particularly liked.
His negatives will always stay high where Gordon's are low. The guy looks like a b-movie villain. Even when smiling the guy looks sinister (probably because he really is).
"[Kitzhaber] has never faced an articulate, well heeled opponent in a knock down drag out fight."
Uh, come on Bill, didn't you face him? You should give yourself (and him) more credit than that...
Novick is an angry D from Portland, that is why he isn't going to win. Also, I overheard this guy at the Gov. debate (last fall) at the MAC in portland still talking how to defeat Bush.
Coyote.....you've stolen my schtick..........Desperate Duin and No facts Novick....what a pair... what a State....What a Newspaper! It all equals declining readership and soaring ad rates....those poor ad boys trying to make it up in pricing....This my friends is what we call the death spiral.
I can see the Bumper stickers now, "Looky Looky I got Hooky!"
How about:
Just say NO to Cpt. Hook.
Look at the bright side.
If Steve Novick washes out as a candidate he's off to a great start doing freak porn.
That hook hand has extreme anal written all over it.
How about "No Hook-er-Midget fer Senate" or "Duck the 4'9" Potato's Hook"?
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