Oregon Republican straw poll heating up
PROGRAM UPDATE:
It has been interesting to watch the swings in the NWR gubernatorial straw poll on this blog's sidebar.
When we first posted the poll "other" and Congressman Greg Walden took off as the clear leaders.
Then Sen. Jason Atkinson jumped to the top of the pack with a late afternoon surge on Monday.
Now, as of this writing, Allen Alley, seemingly out of nowhere, is attempting to stage a strong push on the back stretch and closing in on Sen. Atkinson.
Clearly former Sen. Gordon Smith is faltering badly.
Poll closes on Saturday as that is midway through the Dorchester Conference.
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34 comments:
As I posted below, members of both Alley and Atkinson campaigns are juryrigging the poll. I have, personally, seen a kid associated with Alley who is going to different computer labs and gaming the polls.
Same with the Atkinson side, and certain members there. And the gamesmanship is really Double-A ball. Not fun and certainly not cool.
Needless to say, it renders the poll moot. And frankly, the Dorchester straw poll is the same way, because it doesn't take a lot of other things into account.
I will state, however, that I'm DAMN glad that Kevin Mannix's name isn't on there, because if he was, I'd have to cut something.
I hope it really is someone messing with the sytem as I can't believe anyone would want, Amnesty for Illegal's, Allen Alley for Gov.
Even some Democrats understand that illegal's are Bankrupting our state/nation, look at California.
You are correct in that the poll is being fixed for Alley. It's someone who is working with Alley's son to game the system to give his candidacy a bit of an advantage.
And I would take a watch at Dorchester and see how many people Alley decides to bus in, the same way Ron Saxton did it in 2006.
Some of the independent supporters of Atkinson, however, are also guilty of what is being accused, and also should be a bit ashamed of what they're doing. It's not good and not right.
Jack,
Well I am of two minds on that.
First of all one person cannot game a poll very much or of much consequence.
And if that one person wants to find 5 library computers to vote 5 times then that is one very motivated volunteer. And campaigns are also made up of motivated volunteers.
It is not like someone is setting up a computer system to generate thousands of votes or anything.
So the more motivated volunteers someone can find the better they will also do in a real election.
Also combined in that is the name ID and the casual voter. Not to mention the serious poll voter who is voting once for his/her guy for reasons of substance.
So what you are getting is a combination of motivated volunteers, people voting based on name ID and how many of their people they can get out, and the casual voter.
Much like a regular election.
Of course what you do not get is the casual voter who does not have access to the internet but as long as we keep that in mind then we are fine.
Quite frankly I am surprised that as of right now Allen Alley has somehow been able to muster over a 100 votes. Now THAT is a lot of library computers. LOL.
Or it could be (and probably is more the case) that there are also enough casual internet voters who are interested in seeing a strong early showing for the new guy in the race.
Coyote,
You realize how easy it would be to go through a computer lab of 30 computer... or through a library full of computers?
Not hard at all. I've never given much credence to polls for that and other reasons.
Coyote,
It's understood and all. I'm an Atkinson supporter, and I get a little unnerved about people asking others to go to a computer lab and voting on 50 different computers. Which is exactly what the motivated volunteer working for Alley has seemingly done.
The fact that college students are being called up to do such a thing as well, needless to say it makes polls out to be pretty useless.
But, again, I state that I'm just glad that Kevin Mannix is not anywhere nearby. Cause if he is, I'm gonna get mad. And no one wants to see this pirate mad. Arr.
Coyote, you hit the nail on the head.
Straw polls aren't about being an accurate predictor of election results... they're a rudimentary way of showing which campaigns have got mobilization ability, communications savvy, and sometimes even technical know-how.
The results of the straw poll may not be reflective of an actual vote, but it's certainly an indicator of which campaigns are fired up and which are not.
If we're going by moonbat's logic, then it's looking like Atkinson and Alley have the momentum. Whether Alley's crew plans to bus people in ala Saxton, will tell whether people may regret their decision.
I think what we are seeing is that at this point there are really only two active campaigns. Atkinson and Alley.
Now if Alley wants to "bus" people in to Dorchester? Well more power to him.
ESPECIALLY if they hang around and lose some of their college money to me at a late night poker table. hehe...
No, actually it is showing me that both campaigns WANT to have a showing. You got to want it.
We know that Alley has the money so you can assume that part of his showing will be that.
Atkinson has some organization and his results will/are showing that.
Walden is coasting on name ID and that is fine too if he is looking at that as a partial bellweather for him.
One thing is for sure, that is that you don't win campaigns by losing early polling events.
Does that make sense?
I think even if he barely loses, this poll is a clear victory for Jason Atkinson. He hasn't even announced and seems to have an apparatus already in place. With Alley the only one in the race, it is natural for him to garner a considerable amount of votes. Of the three unannounced potential candidates in the poll, Atkinson is cleaning house.
Slight correction and it really doesn't change your point. I think only two have announced. Unless I missed something.
While Atkinson hasn't gone and made things totally public, I remember that he already mentioned years ago just after the 2006 election that he was going to run again.
So while he hasn't announced, Atkinson does have a network in place from the prior campaign.
And with Kevin Mannix not around to spoil the fun, it may be a great campaign.
anon 4:04 here, I misread the comment above. I read "three announced" candidates.
My bad. My comment at 4:04 was in error.
I hope the "amnesty for illegals" comment above wasn't meant to imply Atkinson believes in it, because that lie has been thoroughly debunked and only the most ardent "Lars is God" Kool Aid drinker believes otherwise.
And, considering the Lars-approved "kick alien kids out of public schools" Ron Saxton went DOWN IN FLAMES against an unpopular candidate who couldn't even get the PEUs to support him, I am guessing that the issue isn't nearly as important as Lars would have us believe.
I think he was pointing out that Alley is a believer in the Amnesty for Illegals plan.
zzzzzzzzzzzzz
Uggggg. Out of a state of nearly 4,000,000 and something like 520,000 registered Republicans, this is the best we can do?
This is why Oregon is doomed. Our Democrats are stupider than the average Democrat, and our Republicans aren't too far behind them.
To think that Dorchester means squat outside of the pitiful few who attend (and mean that in relation to the number of actual voters) is the height of hubris.
It can generate some buzz for you withing the core party people, but for the average voter they don't have a clue. "Who's Dor Chester and what's he running for?"
What was missing on the NRW poll were a) none of the above and b) holy shit, I need to move out of this state ASAMFP.
Non,
You are spot on re: Yawnchester. It's a bullshit social gathering, nothing more. Hell it was founded by a RINO. Remember "Tax Simplificiation" in 1986?
Also I agree with you re: the poll on this site. Dosen't mean shit, especially when the list only includes one potential winner statewide and at that, betcha most in the state wouldn't recognize the name from Hood River.
The "potential winner" idea goes out the door when you find out that the target does not want to run for governor.
That's what Walden has said. And if it stays true, then you go with one of the other two.
One of them will win, though, because people in purple areas are starting to get sick of the blues.
Maybe ACORN is afoot.
There is no excuse,
ANY Republican running for office who doesn't reject human global warming along with all of the liberal causes it bolsters is diqualified, period.
Allen Aley said he favored cap and trade.
He is disqualified.
I'm with Non Oblitus and Me Said. After Atkinson's perfidious vote on the Klamath issue, it's clear we are doomed again to be led over the cliff by RINOs. And cap and trade is even worse.
The difference with the Klamath issue and the cap and trade issue is that the Klamath issue is not a global warming issue. It is not a climate change issue.
The Klamath issue is a rate-payer issue for Pacific Power, a monetary issue in regards to dam removal, and a river preservation issue. NOT a global warming issue.
So, for Anon 10:01P, if you're going to get all broken up because Atkinson was looking out for his own, then you should either take yourself off the voter rolls, move out of Oregon, or vote for a Democrat, because that's what you'll do if you continue being a one-issue voter like you're stating.
Atkinson is not a RINO. And all you are is just a Lars-head who needs to (just like Lars) be run out of Oregon on rails.
People throw the word "RINO" around way to cheaply these days.
There was a time it meant something. Now it simply means "I don't agree with you."
Heck I was talking with a very conservative woman at Dorchester once, and though she was friendly, she was actually accusing me of being a "RINO."
Oh...OK. So that is what the term means now?
Please.
There are a handful of core principles that define a true Republican.
Specifically:
1) Lower Taxes
2) Lower Spending
3) Smaller Government
4) A belief in personal responcibility
5) A belief in personal liberty
Outside of that, everything else is second tier. Tie break issues.
I am not a big fan of Jason Atkinson. But to tag him as a RINO is ludicrious.
Sometimes, the best Republican votes for things that seem to be contrary to what he is supposed to stand for. Never forget that until Clinton signed the tax hike in the early 90's, the largest tax hike prior to that was signed by Ronald Reagan.
I can't believe that I am agreeing with Non-o at least in part.
Even the best politicians vote for things we don't believe in from time to time.
And the term "RINO" means "Republican In Name Only" and should conjure up images of Republicans who CONSTANTLY side with Democrats and liberals.
Not the occasional vote or issue that you happen to disagree with them on.
With me the charge was that I was a "RINO" because I would not support Mary Starrett.
At that point the term loses all credibility.
Agreed, Coyote.
That is why anyone who calls for a perfect candidate in the same vein as Anon 10:04P is to be called a "Lars-head".
Lars tried to get someone who would conform to his idea. He got Ron Saxton, who got his butt smoked like a fresh-caught Columbia river Salmon and lost by 10 points.
It's not gonna happen again.
I love it when Coyote has to admit to agreeing with me. I can see him cringing at the keyboard as he types those dreaded words. :)
Former Mayor Ed Koch, NYC was asked the night before his re-election what advice he had for the voters. He answered:
"If you agree with me on 7 out of 10 issues, vote for me. If you agree with me on 3 out of 10 issues, vote for my opponent. If you agree with me on 10 out of 10 issues, see a psychatrist."
re: Atkinson
All I'm going to say is if the Lad is going to run for Gov. again he will have had to obtained thicker skin than in '06. He was way-way too tight, got snippy too quick, and failed to warm a group sufficiently.
To Pirate Jack:
How does Atkinson "look out for his own" by saddling them with higher electric rate to accomplish no public purpose whatsoever beyond the self-gratification of Kulongoski and his cronies, and enrichment of the hostile Tribe that has been bankrupting the locals ever since another RINO idiot reactivated them. You have a lot to learn about the Klamath issue, apparently.
anon 2:24 said; "and enrichment of the hostile Tribe..."
And you are expected to be taken seriously with hyperbole like that?
Please. Anybody who thinks flooding online polls to show a particular candidate winning is meaningful of anything other than just that narrow thing, then somebody is gonna have to explain why Ron (I forgot to take my Thorazine) Paul isn't POTUS right now.
And flooding the polls isn't hard to do at all. Computer workstations are ubiquitous and fully accessible on college campuses, and not just in the library either. They're flat all over the place, row after row after row. A handful of students can do a lot real quick. That's why Paul won every poll there ever was and got like .00001% of the actual votes in the primaries.
As for the RINO thing, let's be honest here. A true rock-ribbed conservative has never won any state-wide race in Oregon ever. Not ever. And whenever one appears on the scene people line up to take him down. Not just the Dems. Not just the media. But other Republicans. In fact it's fellow Republicans who do the worst damage of all to real conservatives.
To I Am Coyote:
The attack on farmers in the Klamath Basin has been spearheaded by the Klamath Tribe, or at least the professionals they have hired. It is a hostile attack in founded upon massive lies and deception. For example, the assertedly-endangered suckers are found in nearly every stockpond in the Basin, and have never been in any appreciable danger of extinction since snag-fishing them was outlawed in 1988. Nor were coho ever abundant in the Klamath River; 53 females were collected at the turn of the century when the Klamathon Racks were used to collect nearly all the returning fish. None of the ecological theories posited by the Tribe's professionals (and the Federal government) would be accepted by any competent juror, but have never been presented to any ordinary juror; only corrupt federal judges.
The Tribe has filed applications for water rights exceeding the natural flow in most streams, and waged litigation war against the farmers for decades with federally-funded attorneys, as farmer after farmer goes bankrupt or leaves. The Tribe has now committed the State of Oregon to a plan to "reintroduce" salmon to Upper Klamath Lake, as if salmon were ever in what early explorers described as a stinking swamp.
For Atkinson to vote to saddle Oregon's ratepayers with obligations to blow up dams in the service of these ecological masterminds is a betrayal of every conservative principle there is. What is worse is that it was reported that he initially recused himself due to some sort of conflict of interest arising from a consultancy with PacifiCorp, which tends to suggest some form of corruption, rather than pure ignorance. I have lost all faith in him, though I probably cannot fairly describe him as a RINO; perhaps he is a Republican when not induced by whatever means to go against principles he generally advances.
I know you regard many attacks on the Tribes as unfair, but in my world, the world of environmental decisionmaking, the Tribes exercise a virtual veto power over any significant decision east of the Cascades.
The last time I looked, Conservatives were being laughed at by every politician in Oregon. Now, they are trying to tell us that we don't know what RINO means.
Insulting my intelligence by stating that its o.k. to act like a socialist some of the time, spend like a socialist all the time, ignore national security, and suspend the rule of law when you feel like it, got a bunch of rinos sent home. (Enjoy your new lobbying job, gordon smith.)
Non-Oblitus may have been quite accurate in his (republican) list, but until Conservatives see a substantive change from the republican party that reflects an actual understanding of the philosophically and intellectually bankrupt campaigns of '06 and '08, you will continue to lose elections.
The phrase "going Galt" has entered the national tax and economic debate, recently. Among Conservatives, intentionally and stupidly excluded from the political debate, that phrase has been in use for years. As usual, the nation gradually plays "catch-up" with the ideals, principles and philosophy of the Founders. Reagan got it mostly right. He failed to understand that all promises from liberals are lies, especially those regarding spending curbs and border security.
Conservatives now know that the same promises from republicans are also lies. What republicans must finally grasp is the concept that intelligent folks will not be taken in by oft-repeated lies, regardless of the source.
When rinos, like g. smith, j. mccain and j. atkinson, tell me I don't know my own beliefs and principles, do they STILL think I will VOTE for them?
BTW, Non-Oblitus, casually relegating the concepts of strong national defense, secure borders and the surety that our rights are "endowed," not by government, but by an almighty and gracious God, to "second tier" status leads me to believe that another indicator of being a republican is missing the classes on American History.
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